Ruth Gregory

"The big picture is that the public finances are fragile."

"June's slightly lower than expected borrowing figure was a rare piece of good news for the new prime minister and his new chancellor."

"We doubt there is scope for a large-scale fiscal support package like that seen in 2022, even in more extreme scenarios in which the conflict in the Middle East escalates further."

"The full impact from the energy price shock caused by the conflict is still to come."

"It is a dismal backdrop for the autumn Budget, with the government once again borrowing more than expected."

"highlight the deteriorating growth outlook and fragile fiscal backdrop that will face whoever is in 10 Downing Street."

"This provides an early sign of the deterioration in the public finances that is inevitable over the coming quarters."

"Overall, the big picture is that the UK’s public finances are fragile. That won’t change whoever is prime minister."